Leno Enters Stage Left [SFBTN]

Former State Senator, Assemblyman, and Supervisor Mark Leno has decided to run for Mayor, thereby collecting the last and most highly prized of San Francisco’s political Happy Meal™ toys.

As many have pointed out, he’s the first out of the gate to enter a race that is still about two years away. His early and decisive announcement comes in stark contrast to those who remember the very public will-he-won’t he from a few years ago. Mark Leno’s relationship with the mayor’s office has had so many false starts, I think you could officially say he’s got a Sam and Diane thing going on (the fact that he and Ted Danson share a haircut doesn’t hurt either).

Unlike Cheers, Leno’s entry into the mayor’s race hasn’t exactly been Must-See TV™. His website is currently the sixth highest result when you search “mark leno for mayor” into Google. Not exactly lighting the world on fire. My favorite bit of Leno-is-a-nonentity evidence is from his google reviews, of which he only has one; from a man named Michael Matheson who gives Leno only two stars because he’s against Leno’s recent proposal to let bars stay open until 4 am, which Matheson argues will lead to “death and carnage.”

One random guy's gripe aside, Leno has a reputation as a productive legislator, but it’s hard to name any political or policy positions he’s advocated for, even for me. When he filed, he promised to release "more white papers than you have ever seen,” but, so far, his website doesn’t even have a page for issues or policy positions (though that “DONATE” sure is loud and proud).

I would say that Leno has had a political career that’s better than average for a Bay Area politician. He has served for longer and in more capacities than many of his peers (anybody remember Tony Hall? I didn’t think so.), but neither has he catapulted into the upper pantheon of California political gods (see: Dianne Feinstein, Gavin Newsom, Jerry Brown).

Leno, the Early Years

Leno got his foot in the door of City Hall thanks to Mayor Willie Brown, who appointed him to the Board of Supervisors in 1998. Leno, who was one of six Brown appointees on the Board, was among the only sitting Supervisors to survive the transition from at-large elections to the district based system we have today. Most of his colleagues were washed away by a wave of anti-Brown sentiment from voters in 2000. However, Leno survived, albeit narrowly.

Leno’s most prominent challenger (there were five) was Eileen Hansen, from the left . At that time, The San Francisco Bay Guardian, a now-defunct progressive alt-weekly, described Leno this way:

“On the crucial issues facing the city -- displacement, homelessness, health care -- Leno has been on the wrong side. With his fellow Brown appointees, he’s voted to crack down on homeless people, to starve the public health system, to increase rents … He may not be the mayor’s worst appointee, but that’s not saying much.” Needless to say, they enthusiastically endorsed Hansen.

After failing to receive over 50% of the vote in November 2000 (he missed it by 5 votes), Leno had to face Hansen again in a runoff election. Leno would win, but only by about 700 votes (52%-48%); ten votes per precinct. As shown in the map below, the results were fairly stark geographically.

http://imgur.com/q2mpFAq

Leno performed very strongly in Noe Valley, where he lives; Hansen performed almost equally well in Glen Park and areas of the district north of 17th St. Had it not been for Leno’s small victories in the other parts of the district, we might be talking about the legacy of Mayor Hansen instead.*

Leno’s next competitive race was in the Democratic primary for California’s 13th Assembly District.** He was again challenged on the left by fellow former Supervisor Harry Britt. The San Francisco Bay Guardian endorsed Britt, who replaced Harvey Milk on the Board of Supervisors and served for 13 years, and described Britt as “something of a legend in the progressive community.” Meanwhile, the progressive resolve against Leno had somewhat softened:

“He’s a nice guy, and he’s done some worthwhile things; he authored the transgender rights bill and the solar power bond measure last fall, and he’s been and strong supporter of affordable housing and a backer of public power. But he’s not the right person to send to Sacramento from one of the most liberal assembly districts in the state,” read the Guardian, on Leno, in their endorsement of Britt.

Leno would go on to win another squeaker. He beat Britt by about 2,000 votes out of more than 51,000 cast (43%-39%); or about 5 votes per precinct. Two other candidates would gather the other 18%.

http://imgur.com/A91hwy9

Britt performed strongly in the Haight, Mission, Bernal Heights, and Tenderloin neighborhoods. Leno did well in the neighborhoods that comprised his old district and the Marina and Pacific Heights. As you can see in the map below, Leno performed especially strongly in parts of the Hansen carried just a few years earlier (note that Leno actually lost ground in Noe Valley). Leno’s success in his race for the Assembly was buoyed by his ability to new woo leftist voters, while continuing to hold his own with his moderate base.

This skill would serve Leno well when he ran for State Senate; challenging incumbent and fellow-Democrat Carol Migden. Migden, once a darling of the city’s progressive left, had fallen out of favor after she was fined $350,000 by the Fair Political Practices Commission for 89 campaign finance violations. Despite Migden’s ethical quagmire, she still almost received the Guardian’s endorsement. Had it not been for the fact that Leno used his Assembly seat to consistently push issues important to San Francisco progressives, she probably would have. In their endorsement of Leno, the Guardian would write:

“It doesn’t get any tougher than this -- two strong candidates, each with tremendous appeal and a few serious weaknesses. Two San Francisco progressives with distinguished records fighting for a powerful seat … Two people we genuinely like, for very different reasons. It’s fair to say that this is one of the hardest decisions we’ve had to make in the 42-year history of the Guardian. In the end, we’ve decided -- with some reservations -- to endorse Assemblymember Mark Leno.”

What a difference eight years makes, right?

The Guardian’s endorsement reflects just how well liked Leno had become. At that time the State Senate district had very similar boundaries to Leno’s Assembly district, which means voters who previously voted for Leno and Migden now had to choose Leno or Migden. While the Guardian may have agonized over this decision, most voters did not. Leno did what he’s always done; he won by winning over many of those progressive voters who formerly voted against him.

http://imgur.com/DRDLcT6

Leno crushed Migden so badly that I had to change the scale of my map. Migden didn’t win more than 46 votes in any single precinct. Meanwhile Leno won 49 precincts by 100 votes or more. As was true in previous elections, the base of his strength remained in the parts of the city he once represented as Supervisor (the Castro, Noe Valley, and Glen Park). He beat Migden by over 16,000 votes (56%-33%); or by about 49 votes per precinct.

Running for Mayor

With almost two decades of electoral success behind him, you’d think Leno would be a shoo-in for mayor, right? Maybe. I hate to keep quoting the Guardian, but here’s a caveat from their endorsement in 2008.

“There’s a war for the soul of San Francisco today, as there has been for many years, and Leno has often tried to straddle the battle lines, sometimes leaning a bit to the wrong camp -- and never showing the courage to fight at home for the issues he talks about in Sacramento.”

Even though that sentence is as melodramatic as it is run-on, it hits on a sentiment that’s as salient now as it was then.

If you peruse the list of people who’ve already endorsed his candidacy, you’ll notice it’s a very strange amalgam of local officials; illustrating that characterization that Leno often “straddles the battle lines.” Progressive Supervisor Aaron Peskin and moderate Assemblyman Phil Ting are among the most prominent local elected officials on the list. He’s missing most of the other progressive and moderate local elected officials including Mayor Ed Lee, State Senator Scott Wiener, Assemblyman David Chiu, and eight members of the board of Supervisors. This lack of moderate support is something new for Leno. He’s always had to guard against opponents on left (which still might be the case). The fact that he rarely endorsed local progressive candidates means they probably aren’t falling all over themselves to get him elected.

His ability to win on the westside of San Francisco is a bit of a mystery. When he was first elected State Senator, his district was only the Eastern half the city. Thanks to redistricting, his district expanded to include the entire city (and part of Daly City) by the time he was finished. As a result, Leno has never run a competitive election on the West side, and his last truly competitive election was in 2002 (that was three whole presidential administrations ago).

This doesn’t mean Leno doesn’t have serious advantages. I have every reason to believe he’s very popular in the parts of the city that vote the most. In researching this column, I went so far as to search microfilm newspaper archives in order to find any dirt. Leather pants aside, the man is as clean as a whistle. Most importantly, he keeps winning elections. You don’t survive two decades in elected office without some ability to appeal to voters.

If voting is about searching for the candidate that’s “just right,” then Mark Leno’s political history might make him the anti-Goldilocks. Can he win when he’s nobody's favorite?

UPDATE: Many of you have been quick to point out all the things Leno has done that you love over the years. Leno does list a few of his past legislative accomplishments on his website, but makes no mention of what he'd like to see for the future. Skeptical cynics like me read that as someone whose carefully trying to read the tea leaves before taking a stand. But others, as you see down in the comments, feel differently. These voters have lived with Leno for a long time, and they feel like they know him and trust him implicitly. To me, his listing his own accomplishments looks like a way to gloss over a lack of vision; to them it's a demonstration of success. This dynamic has marked Leno's entire political career. He's faced tough races because of voters who were nervous or skeptical about what he would do, however, he's always been able to eventually win over enough of his former skeptics to run for higher office (where he faced a whole new group of skeptics). The question becomes, which force will win out as he faces his first competitive race 1) under the ranked choice voting system 2) against opponents potentially more used to navigating the hyper-local issues that have dominated the city the last 8 years, and 3) facing more conservative Westside voters after a career in which he's gradually moved left.

Andy Mullan is the Beacon’s very own data guy. He analyzes data and their impact on local politics in our regular feature, SFByTheNumbers. Find more in-depth, obscure data analysis and adventures in new adulthood at his blog, Lord of the Fails.

Correction: Mark Leno's website has improved in SEO since this piece was first written. At the time of publishing, his website appeared second in a Google search of "mark leno for mayor". This column originally stated that Mark Leno did not introduce a 4 A.M. Bar bill. That is incorrect - Mark Leno did introduce a 4 A.M. Bar bill when in the State Senate; Senator Scott Wiener has carried over the bill into his legislative agenda.

Infographics by Parker Crane.

Photograph from www.markleno.com

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* Hansen, who passed away in 2016, remained very active in local politics until her untimely death.
**At the time, the 13th Assembly District encompassed much of eastern San Francisco. The districts have since been renumbered.